Two years of empty sea lanes, and then — slowly, ship by ship — the traffic came back. Here is where the Red Sea corridor actually stands in August 2026, and what it means for anyone moving a container between Asia, the Gulf and Europe.
The short version
The Red Sea is open, but it is not "back to normal". Carriers are transiting the Bab el-Mandeb and the Suez Canal again, tonnage through the canal is climbing, and Egypt is booking its best revenue numbers since 2023. At the same time, underwriters still classify the corridor as a listed war-risk area, schedules are being rebuilt week by week rather than committed to for a year, and several operators are keeping a Cape of Good Hope contingency warm.
For a freight forwarder in Dubai, that mix — recovering capacity plus unresolved risk — is the whole story. It is why your Asia–Europe transit time is improving while your all-in cost is not falling as fast as you expected.
What changed: from full diversion to a phased return
From late 2023, the great majority of container tonnage abandoned the Suez routing and sailed the long way around southern Africa. That decision added roughly 3,000–3,500 nautical miles and, depending on the string, ten to fourteen days to an Asia–North Europe voyage.
The turn came at the end of 2025. Following the ceasefire framework agreed at the Sharm El-Sheikh summit and a sustained fall in incidents against merchant shipping, the first carriers began testing the corridor again:
- Maersk moved first with staged transits, beginning with a Middle East–India–US East Coast service sailing from Salalah in late January 2026, and has kept describing the return as gradual and reversible.
- CMA CGM took the most forward position, routing its India–US INDAMEX service back through Suez and later sending ultra-large boxships through the canal.
- Hapag-Lloyd, through the Gemini Cooperation with Maersk, resumed limited transits in February 2026, paused again during a period of regional escalation, and announced a second phased attempt from July 2026 on an Asia–Mediterranean–Türkiye string.
- MSC followed with selected large-vessel transits.
The pattern is consistent: nobody has rebuilt their entire network around Suez. They are running services back through it one string at a time, with the option to swing south again.
The numbers behind the recovery
The Suez Canal Authority reported 1,315 vessels carrying 56 million tons transiting since the start of 2026, generating USD 449 million in revenue — against 1,243 vessels, 47 million tons and USD 368 million in the comparable 2025 period.
Across the 2025/2026 fiscal year, the Authority reported revenue up around 23% to roughly USD 4.67 billion, with transits up about 10% year on year and cargo tonnage up 22%.
Encouraging — and still well short of pre-disruption throughput. Independent assessments through early 2026 put canal transits materially below 2023 levels, and the recovery has been uneven rather than a straight line.
What it is costing shippers right now
Drewry's World Container Index stood at about USD 4,297 per 40ft container on 6 August 2026, up 1% after three weeks of decline. The index peaked in July 2026 at around USD 4,639 — its highest reading since September 2024 — driven largely by Asia–Europe.
Layered on top of base freight, shippers are still absorbing:
- War-risk and emergency surcharges of roughly USD 50–100 per TEU on cargo policies for transits through the listed area, with materially higher figures on Gulf-linked routings.
- Hull war-risk premiums quoted per voyage rather than annually, with underwriters re-rating on short notice.
- Schedule volatility. When a string swings between Suez and the Cape mid-quarter, your ETA moves by up to two weeks — which hits inventory cover, LC validity and demurrage before it hits freight cost.
Why the risk has not been priced out
Incidents against merchant shipping have fallen sharply from their peak, but the corridor has not been de-listed. Reporting through 2026 has continued to note announcements restricting certain categories of vessel from the corridor, and periods of regional escalation have twice been enough to send carriers back around the Cape mid-rotation.
The practical consequence for cargo owners is simple: treat Suez routing as a service level, not a guarantee. Ask your carrier or forwarder, in writing, which routing your booking is confirmed on, and what happens to transit time and surcharges if it changes.
What this means for UAE and Gulf trade
The UAE sits on the useful side of this. Jebel Ali and Khalifa Port function as the natural relay between the Asia–Gulf leg and the Red Sea corridor, and a partially recovered Suez route strengthens the transhipment case rather than weakening it. Practically:
- Asia–Europe transit times are improving on Suez-routed strings — but confirm the routing per booking, not per contract.
- Build a two-scenario plan. Model your Asia–Europe lead time on both Suez and Cape assumptions and hold safety stock to the slower one until routing stabilises.
- Read your surcharge schedule. War-risk, emergency-operating and peak-season surcharges are separate line items and move independently of base freight.
- Watch congestion, not just transit. Faster Suez strings landing on Mediterranean and North European terminals that planned around Cape schedules is a known berth-congestion risk for late 2026.
- Use Jebel Ali as a buffer. Consolidating or bonding in the UAE gives you a decision point closer to the market instead of committing cargo to one ocean routing 40 days out.
Outlook for the rest of 2026
Egyptian officials and several carriers have pointed toward a broader normalisation through 2026, and the commercial pull is real — Suez saves over 3,000 nautical miles, a large fuel bill and a meaningful volume of CO₂ per voyage, which matters under tightening EU emissions rules. But every carrier statement so far has been conditional on security assessment. Expect continued recovery with the possibility of pauses, rather than a single clean reopening.
Moving cargo through the Red Sea corridor?
Sea Prince Logistics handles ocean freight, customs clearance and bonded warehousing out of Jebel Ali, and we route Asia–Europe and Asia–Gulf cargo daily under exactly these conditions. If you want your lanes reviewed against both Suez and Cape assumptions — with the surcharge exposure spelled out — get in touch with our team.
Sources
- S&P Global Market Intelligence — Red Sea shipping reopens (Feb 2026)
- Drewry — World Container Index, 6 August 2026
- Egypt Today — Suez Canal Authority: 1,300+ ships and $449M revenue in 2026
- The Maritime Executive — CMA CGM sends ULCV through the Suez Canal
- Xeneta — Large-scale return of container ships to the Red Sea in 2026
- NBC News — What to know about the threat to Red Sea shipping
- Nautilus Shipping — War risk insurance in 2026
This article is provided for general information only and reflects publicly reported data as at 7 August 2026. It is not legal, insurance or investment advice. Rates, routings and risk classifications change frequently — confirm current conditions with your carrier, broker or underwriter before acting.